WASHINGTON -- On Tuesday night, the Washington Nationals will host the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2019 National League Wild Card Game. Much of the talk heading into the game pertains to how the Nationals will manage their pitching staff, and whether Davey Martinez will call upon Stephen Strasburg and/or Patrick Corbin in addition to Max Scherzer in order to ensure advancement.
Relatively, the Brewers' side of the ledger has been overlooked. But that doesn't mean Craig Counsell's decisions on Tuesday will be any less interesting. Rather, the Brewers are likely to run back the bullpen-heavy strategy that left them a win short of last fall's World Series.
The only thing for certain about Counsell's plan is to start with Brandon Woodruff, who hasn't pitched in more than a week and has been limited two a pair of innings in each of his appearances since returning from the injured list. Even if the Brewers permit Woodruff to go deeper on Tuesday, their recent history suggests it won't be for much longer.
A Brewers starter hasn't faced as many as 25 batters in a game since Gio Gonzalez did it on August 26. Gonzalez faced 29 batters, but it wasn't because he was rolling -- he yielded nine runs (seven earned) in a loss. In the 30-plus starts since, the Brewers have allowed just one of their starters to face as many as 24 batters.
Indeed, the Brewers have done everything within their power to avoid the third-time-through effect. On 21 occasions, Counsell has removed his starter after they faced 20 batters or fewer -- that isn't just a round number, as it also represents the maximum amount of batters a starter can face before encountering the middle-of-the-order for a third time.
The Brewers, who are carrying 10 pitchers for Tuesday, do have two other starters in tow: right-handers Chase Anderson and Jordan Lyles. They do not have Gio Gonzalez, Woodruff's September caddy, available. Instead, that role could be played by Brent Suter -- a funky southpaw who has held the opposition to 10 hits, one run, and one walk while fanning 15 in 18 innings this season. Suter has completed multiple innings in seven of his nine outings.
If Suter does make an appearance, it'll likely be after the Brewers deploy a pinch-hitter for Woodruff or the pitcher's slot. Indeed, Milwaukee could well turn to a middle reliever if Woodruff exits before the Brewers turn over their order. From there, it's a matter of math -- four, five, or six innings of piecing together bullpen outings depending on various factors.
The premise might be the same as last October, but outside of Josh Hader the Brewers have redesigned their bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress is gone and Corey Knebel is injured. That leaves Milwaukee relying on five pitchers who weren't necessarily on the radar this time last year.
Here's a handy guide to those pitchers:
The Brewers acquired Alex Claudio from the Rangers back in December, and he's continued to be an effective left-handed specialist. True to the genre, Claudio doesn't throw hard -- his fastball clocks in at 85 mph and his Bugs Bunny changeup at 73 mph -- but he has three pitches to throw against lefties. This was the first time he was used against more than 50 percent lefties in a full season, and odds are Counsell will keep him as exclusive as possible heading forward.
Those who know Junior Guerra probably became familiar with him during his days as a starter. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season, yet leveraged his past durability to throw 83 innings in 72 appearances -- making him the only non-Hader relief arm on the roster to record 20-plus multi-inning outings. Guerra's OPS betrays no platoon split (his finer component measures suggest he's better against righties), but the Brewers seem comfortable using him regardless of the opposition and could task him with getting six outs on Tuesday.
Jay Jackson is a 31-year-old former top prospect who spent the last several years overseas. He's more than a feel-good story: he's a highly effective right-handed specialist. Jackson held righties to a .606 OPS, and as a group they hit .109 against his slider (his top pitch) while whiffing on more than half their swings. (Lefties, by the way, have a .923 OPS against him.) Jackson could come in handy on Tuesday as a right-on-right specialist.
Another converted starter, Freddy Peralta has worked exclusively out of the bullpen since mid-June. His ERA in those 27 outings is ugly, but he struck out 56 batters (versus 23 walks) in 37 innings. If he appears, expect to see a lot of his low-to-mid-90s fastball.
Then there's Drew Pomeranz, a midseason trade acquisition who started 17 times for the Giants but has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen with the Brewers. Pomeranz has scrapped his changeup and cutter and is essentially a two-pitch arm at this point: lots of high-spin fastballs and some curveballs. He's always been superior with the platoon advantage, yet the Brewers have largely deployed him as their seventh-inning arm over the past few weeks.
Presuming the Nationals use their typical righty lineup, the Brewers will have to worry about only a few left-handers dispersed throughout. The bulk of the evening, then, figures to be in the hands of Woodruff, Suter, Guerra, Pomeranz, and Hader. These things never break so cleanly as planned, but the Brewers could then deploy Jackson and/or Claudio for one-batter assignments in the mid-to-late innings -- Jackson in relief of a lefty; Claudio to face Soto.
Based on Counsell's history, we know he has the foresight to pull off what the Brewers seem likely to do. Depending on how things break, it's possible that the story of the night ends up being about staff-handling after all -- just focused on the Brewers instead of the Nationals.
